What is Serava's real profit margin per package? We assumed 15–25% and flagged it unverified. At the median result, this campaign breaks even only if the true margin is ≥24%. At 20% it loses money. At 15% it cannot work at any budget. One email to Mats answers it, costs nothing, and can save the €300 — or change the scale recommendation entirely. Ask before the flight spends out, not after.
€500 total budget. ~€185 (~$200) is already spent on production — building 51 ads and 27 videos. That's a permanent asset; it doesn't get spent again.
€300 remains, and it is the entire media budget. Production spend and media spend are different things — never add them together.
Cannot prove sales. €300 buys 0–3 orders. You cannot tell a working funnel from a broken one on a sample of two. Zero sales here would NOT mean the campaign failed.
Can prove market response. ~31,000 people will see the ads. That's a big enough sample to measure — precisely — whether Swedes respond to this offer, and which creative wins.
Not "how many tickets do we sell" — we can't afford to ask that yet.
The question is: "is this campaign worth funding at all?" The €300 buys an answer to that. If it comes back yes, the scale ladder (30k / 75k / 150k SEK) is already built and waiting.
| Campaign | Budget | What it's for |
|---|---|---|
| C1 · Consumer Traffic objective · 4 ads | €210 70% | Broad Sweden, 25+. 2 videos + 2 statics, all price-free. Optimized for Landing Page Views. This is the creative test. |
| C2 · B2B Lead form · 1–2 ads | €90 30% | Form lives on Meta — no website, no pixel needed. The asymmetric bet: one corporate order (8–15 tickets) out-earns the entire consumer arm. |
Stockholm is 1 August — 20 days out. Göteborg is 8 August — 27 days.
The test must close by ~20–21 July. That leaves ~10 days to scale for Stockholm and ~17 for Göteborg. Run the test longer and we win the argument but miss the events.
A late verdict is a useless verdict.
Hard rules: never the word "scalper" in Swedish; biljetthaj ("ticket shark") and andrahand ("second-hand") appear only on the Göteborg surface; never disparage legal marketplaces. Stockholm uses a different anchor — the 2025 sellout (45 345 attendees) plus domestic hospitality comparisons (Djurgården Grand Bar 1 795 kr · Svenska FA VIP 2 067 kr) — because Stockholm resale starts below Serava's 1,995 kr floor, so a resale comparison there would be misleading, which is an offence under the Swedish Marketing Act (MFL §10/§18).
25–54, Sweden / Norway / Finland. Dream: see United from a premium seat, not row 70.
Industrisemester — the Swedish industrial holiday, when most of the country is off work in July. Stockholm falls on its last weekend.
Göteborg = the first week back at work. Impress clients; pay by invoice, not card.
Norway — copy in bokmål (one of Norway's two written standards). Oslo→Göteborg is ~3h by road.
Lounge 40 · Stockholm · från 1 995 kr ("from 1,995 kr"). The bonuses are things the package already includes, simply re-named and priced.
Perceived total ~2,900 kr — the customer pays from 1,995 kr. Consumer Playbook PDF was removed (no delivery mechanism → B2B only, D19).
forbidden refunds, the word "official", exclusivity, transfer/resale guarantees, best-price promises — Serava's own terms contradict all of them.
The v1 plan's 15% retargeting arm was dropped — at €300 the audience never grows large enough to be usable. Retargeting is a scale-phase tool.
| Low | Median | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Impressions | ~18,000 | ~22,000 | ~26,000 |
| Clicks to the site | ~183 | ~238 | ~264 |
| Landing page views | ~130 | ~175 | ~210 |
| Orders | ~0.5 | ~1.4 | ~2.4 |
| Tickets | ~1 | ~4 | ~8 |
| Revenue | ~3,000 kr | ~10,000 kr | ~20,500 kr |
| ROAS on consumer spend | 1.2× | 4.2× | 8.6× |
| Outcome | Revenue | ROAS | vs break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| No corporate close the median outcome | ~10,000 kr | 2.9× | ❌ no |
| One corporate close ~40–50% likely | 32–50k kr | 9–15× | ✅ pays 2–3× |
| Metric | What it means, in plain English | 🟢 Green | 🟡 Amber | 🔴 Red |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPM Cost Per Mille | Cost to show the ad to 1,000 people. Is this audience affordable at all? | ≤110 kr | 110–150 | >150 |
| CTR Click-Through Rate | % of viewers who click through to the site. Does the creative earn attention? | ≥1.2% | 0.7–1.2% | <0.7% |
| CPC Cost Per Click | Cost of one click to the site. Is traffic affordable? | ≤10 kr | 10–16 | >16 |
| Hook rate | 3-second video views ÷ impressions. Does the first 2 seconds stop the scroll? | ≥25% | 15–25% | <15% |
| ThruPlay | Watched to 15s or to the end. Does the story hold? | ≥10% | 6–10% | <6% |
| Cost / LPV Landing Page View | Cost of a visitor who actually arrived — not just tapped by accident. | ≤14 kr | 14–25 | >25 |
Tier 1 mostly green AND (≥1 consumer order OR ≥2 B2B leads).
The market responds and the funnel converts. Go to the scale ladder below. Recommend 75k SEK only if Mats confirms margin ≥25% — otherwise 30k as a second, larger validation.
Tier 1 green (cheap CPM, strong CTR, healthy hook rate) BUT zero orders and weak engagement on the site.
This is not a failure. It says the ads work and the landing/checkout is the bottleneck — and we already have three suspects, all near-free to fix: the +25% VAT surprise at checkout; no pixel, so the ~250 warm visitors evaporate; and a Facebook page with 26 likes and no Instagram — zero social proof for a Swede checking we're real before spending 2,995 kr.
This is the most valuable thing €300 can buy: it turns "the campaign doesn't work" into "these three specific things are broken".
CTR <0.7% across all four creatives AND CPM >150 kr.
The market isn't responding to this offer, at this price, in this window. Stop spending. Revisit the offer before touching the creative.
| 30k SEK | 75k SEK | 150k SEK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prospecting clicks | ~2 100 | ~5 250 | ~10 500 |
| Consumer tickets (median) | ~33 | ~82 | ~164* |
| + Corporate (lead ads) | +15–40 | +30–60 | +60–120* |
| Total tickets — median | ~50–70 | ~110–140 | ~225–285* |
| Honest band | 40–100 | ~100–180 | ~180–350* |
| Cost per order | ~430–600 | ~535–680 | ~525–665 |
| Clears break-even @25% margin | ✅ | ✅ tight | ✅ tight |
| Clears break-even @15% margin | ❌ | ❌ | ❌ |
| Hits the 200–300 ticket goal? | ❌ | 255–275 = upside only | ✅ stock-capped |
| Date | Batch | Model / tier | Type | Est $ | Actual $ | Cum $ | Headroom $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-10 | preflight (3 clients) | dry-run smoke | DRY-RUN | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100.00 |
| 07-10 | tournament-drafts (24 img) | gpt-image-2 low 1024² | LIVE | 0.144 | 0.144 | 0.144 | 99.86 |
| 07-11 | images-gpt-production (31/31) | gpt-image-2 high/med | LIVE | 2.679 | 2.679 | 2.823 | 97.18 |
| 07-11 | images-nano-keyvisuals (9/9) | gemini-3-pro-image 4K | LIVE | 2.16 | 2.16 | 4.983 | 95.02 |
| 07-11 | veo-b1-fast (12/12, 8s 720p) | veo-3.1-fast | LIVE | 3.00 | 3.00 | 7.983 | 92.02 |
| 07-11 | veo-b1-regen ×3 | veo-3.1-fast | LIVE | 0.75 | 0.75 | 8.733 | 91.27 |
| 07-11 | veo-b2-hero (8/8, 8s 1080p) | veo-3.1-generate | LIVE | 6.00 | 6.00 | 14.733 | 85.27 |
| 07-11 | seedance ugc1-rant (15s) | seedance-2.0 fal | LIVE | 3.33 | 3.33 | 18.063 | 81.94 |
| 07-11 | seedance ugc4+dr6+6 animates | seedance-2.0 fal | BLOCKED | 19.97 | 0.00 | 18.063 | 81.94 |
| 07-11 | veo-b3-backfill (8/8, 720p 9:16) | veo-3.1-fast | LIVE | 2.00 | 2.00 | 20.063 | 79.94 |
| 07-11 | images-gpt-regen ×2 (dr1 de-alcohol) | gpt-image-2 high+med | LIVE | 0.218 | 0.218 | 20.281 | 79.72 |
| 07-11 | veo-hero-regen ×2 (QC Gate2) | veo-3.1-generate | LIVE | 1.50 | 1.50 | 21.781 | 78.22 |
Three adversarial seats: a Manchester United lawyer, a Meta policy reviewer, and a Swedish consumer + the Konsumentverket (the Swedish Consumer Agency). Confirmed solid: zero visual IP (no crests, kits, players, or the word "official") across every ad and video poster; alcohol discipline impeccable; Swedish and bokmål idiomatic with correct diacritics. Full detail: qc/redteam-gate4.md.
Running now: the 42 price-free images + the invoice/B2B track + all 27 videos.
Held back: the 9 price-bearing images are physically quarantined (final/_GATED-HOLD/) until Serava fixes the VAT checkout, or the ads are re-composited with the real card total. Every one already has a price-free twin that is live.